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Dragon Debt

Plus: Fossil fuel lobbyists must really care about climate, judging by COP28 attendance ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
December 6, 2023 Read in Browser
TOGETHER WITH

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Assembly was always going to be necessary if robots are going to fulfill their destiny.


Obligingly, Agility Robotics is set to open the world's first manufacturing facility for mass-producing humanoid robots, per an Axios report Tuesday. The factory, based in Salem, Oregon, will produce bipedal human-esque robots designed for heavy lifting and other warehouse-related work. Agility expects to assemble hundreds of robots next year, with plans to eventually pump out 10,000 bots a year. You won't be shocked to learn that Amazon is already a customer. We're not scared, to be clear, so long as we've got Sam Altman's crew keeping us safe from rogue AI. Okay, we're afraid.

Morning Brief
• China's credit rating hasn't changed… but it could.
• Wolves among sheep at COP28.
• The FTC eyes Exxon.
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International Economics
China's Financial Woes Grow as Moody's Lowers Credit Outlook
The writing is on the Great Wall when it comes to Chinese debt.
Moody's Investors Service cut its outlook for China's credit rating to negative from stable on Tuesday in response to crushing debt across the Middle Kingdom's local governments.
Hitting a Great Wall
China's economic and fiscal woes are no secret: The country was late to reopen after covid, youth unemployment hit a record high, Western firms have cut investments, stocks are plummeting, the property sector is crumbling, and rates of consumer defaults are quickly accelerating. The Financial Times reported that the number of people blacklisted for missing payments on everything from mortgages to business loans has risen to a record 8.5 million from 5.7 million in early 2020.
All of that may have been a little bit more manageable if cities and provinces themselves weren't also feeling financial strain.
China's local governments have as much as $11 trillion in off-balance-sheet debt, The Wall Street Journal reported, as municipalities issued thousands of bonds that borrowed money to finance roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Now, economists say anywhere from $400 billion to $800 billion of the hidden debt is at risk of default, which could require the national government to step in and provide financial support and even bailouts. That scenario is exactly what could cause China's credit rating to eventually be downgraded:
• Moody's maintained China's A1 long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, four levels below a top-tier Aaa rating. The agency last cut China's credit rating in 2017.
• Ratings agencies S&P and Fitch have given China an A+ rating, and both consider the country's rating outlook to be stable. Similar to Moody's, earlier this summer, Fitch's James McCormack told Bloomberg that if China extends its balance sheet to support the economy, then "we might think again" about changing the score.
Cross the T's and Dot the I's: When developer Evergrande defaulted under $300 billion of debt in 2021, much of the blame was put on new policies from Beijing that looked to limit how much developers could borrow. However, The New York Times reported that another factor probably contributed to the downfall: shoddy accounting.
In many cases, Evergrande would record money it received for apartments as revenue even if it hadn't actually built them yet. Evergrande and many other developers also had the tendency to over-borrow and over-build. Now, China is littered with dozens of ghost cities and millions of empty apartments. When a country of 1.4 billion has too many places to live, somebody messed up the math.
- Griffin Kelly
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Policy
Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Have Flocked to COP28 in Record Numbers
It's standing room only at this year's COP conference. For fossil fuel lobbyists, anyway.
A report from Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO), a coalition of climate change activist groups, found that the number of lobbyists for fossil fuel interests who registered for this year's COP conference totaled at least 2,456, up almost four-fold compared to last year.
You Gotta Change the System From Inside, Man
According to KBPO, the fossil fuel industry sent more delegates to COP28 than the vast majority of sovereign nations. Fossil fuel and fossil fuel-adjacent companies demand a seat at the table. The CEO of a pipeline giant told The Washington Post that executives are: "tired of being told they're bad people because they're part of the fossil fuel industry, while they have a lot to offer on emissions reductions," specifically referring to the switch to less-polluting (but still polluting) natural gas from oil.
Fossil fuel giants can invest in emissions reductions, and companies including BP and Shell can simultaneously invest in renewable energy, but this year also saw oil and gas firms reneging on previous climate promises, and some climate change activists see the swelling presence of lobbyists as an existential problem:
• "You would not invite arms dealers to a peace conference," David Tong, global industry campaign manager at nonprofit Oil Change International, told The Guardian. "Countries and communities are here negotiating for their lives, while the fossil companies and their enablers are here for their wallets," he added.
• A sense of dread might be motivating fossil fuel companies as well, as the International Energy Agency predicted in October that fossil fuel demand will peak by 2030. Meanwhile, researchers from the Center for International Climate Research (Cicero) found the emissions generated from fossil fuels have hit a new high.
Deep, Deep, Trouble: Good old-fashioned global warming aside, a whole other environmental storm is brewing over whether we should harvest the sea floor for minerals that could power the green economy. Deep-sea mining has provoked heated international debate, with some countries saying it would provide a valuable source of lithium and other rare earth metals, while others caution it could cause unknown amounts of damage to ocean ecosystems. Norway has come out for the how-bad-could-it-be team, announcing it will allow exploration for deep-sea mining off its coastline. Deep-sea mining in arctic waters? Sounds like a good way to wake the Kraken if you ask us.
- Isobel Asher Hamilton
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Regulation
The FTC Starts Probe of Exxon's Pioneer Acquisition

(Photo by Raymond Kotewicz via Unsplash)

 

Funny how people notice when you do something like announce the biggest oil merger in 20 years.
Exxon's $60 billion planned acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources, announced in October, has attracted the attention of the Federal Trade Commission, which now wants additional information from the companies ahead of a potential lawsuit to block the deal, according to Pioneer filings on Tuesday.
There's Monopolistic Potential In Them Hills
The Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico is a major hub for the US fracking industry. And real estate for drilling has become so tight, smaller players reap more value from selling the land than drilling themselves. Pioneer, which owns more land in the region than any other player, did just that, selling its business at a nearly 18% premium compared to when rumors of a deal sprouted weeks earlier.
In adding Pioneer, Exxon is effectively doubling its drilling capacity in the region — and that's enough to attract the attention of Lina Khan's ever-vigilant FTC. Exxon and Pioneer, for their parts, are already packing loads of anti-antitrust counterarguments:
• Oil companies have long avoided antitrust scrutiny on the grounds that they compete in a truly global industry. Exxon and Pioneer are likely to argue that a marriage barely makes any worldwide impact.
• In fact, though the deal would make Exxon the largest producer in the Permian Basin, it'd still only control about 15% of drillable real estate. Exxon says the deal's synergies could save billions in costs, which could, theoretically, save consumers money.
Juggling Act: The FTC has its hands full. In addition to myriad Big Tech antitrust lawsuits already underway, the agency may soon turn its attention toward Chevron's $53 billion acquisition of Hess, or Occidential's potential scoop-up of CrownRock, the Permian's largest private driller. So far, Exxon and Pioneer say they are cooperating with the FTC's requests and still expect the deal to close in the first half of 2024. They may as well be reciting oil baron Daniel Planview's "I Drink Your Milkshake" monologue from There Will Be Blood.
- Brian Boyle
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Extra Upside
• New challenger: Elon Musk's AI project, X.ai, raises $134 million of $1 billion target.
• Help unwanted: US job openings hit two-year low.
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