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New York State of Bind

Plus: Target is considering its own take on Prime memberships. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
 
February 8, 2024
 
 
 
 
 

Good morning.

It's not just annoying to ask your team to work after hours. In Australia, soon it'll be illegal.

The Land Down Under is set to introduce laws that will allow people to ignore unreasonable calls and messages from their employers outside of work hours and protect them from being punished for it. The bill to be considered argues that workers have the "right to disconnect," and that the provisions would restore a healthy work-life balance. Similar laws have been enacted in Spain, France, and other European Union nations. As for the rest of us, we're used to that Slack knock-brush by now.

 
 
BANKING
New York Community Bank Scrambles for Stability
Photo of a New York Community Bank sign

Sometimes there's nowhere to go but up.

Shares of New York Community Bank found some life on Wednesday, reversing a descent that began last week when the company unexpectedly announced it had swung to a quarterly loss and decided to slash its dividend by about 80%. At the time, the bank cited weakness in the office sector for two plus-sized loan charge-offs that evaporated its bid for a quarterly profit. Considering regional and smaller banks hold about 70% of all loans in the wobbly commercial real estate sector, that wasn't great news for the stocks of any smaller banks. Amid New York Community's selloff, the KBW Regional Bank Index has slid about 11%.

When it Rains

Despite the uptick in NYCB shares, things are no less glum than a week ago. Bloomberg reported on Monday that the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the federal bank watchdog, had pressured New York Community to slash its dividend and stockpile cash to protect itself against more bad loans. While that's a seemingly justifiable strategy, no investor in a small or regional bank is that jazzed about the need for — or even the appearance of — federal intervention. Then, rumors of a credit downgrade from Moody's came to fruition late Tuesday, with the agency cutting its rating on New York Community's debt two notches to junk, saying the move "reflects multifaceted financial, risk-management and governance challenges." Nitpickers. 

With its back somewhat against the wall, and its stock now down about 55% in a week, New York Community is attempting to soothe the market:

  • The bank shifted Alessandro DiNello into the role of executive chairman (from nonexecutive chair) on Wednesday, in an attempt to quell the "who's running this place" concerns. DiNello said in a conference call that the company "will do whatever it takes" and noted that the bank had seen "virtually no deposit outflow" from its retail branches. No bank run here, folks, is the message at hand.
  • Part of "whatever it takes" is likely offloading a lot more risk from the bank's ledger. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the bank has been reaching out to investors to help finance a risk-transfer transaction for a portfolio of residential mortgages, and also is reportedly exploring the sale of $1 billion in RV and marine loans. That… is a lot of boats.

New York Community's "someone is in charge here" message did seem to put a floor under its stock, which closed Wednesday nearly 7% higher.

Loan Laments: Funtime is over: While overall US credit-delinquency rates are still below pre-Covid levels, that's no longer the case for credit card balances and auto loans. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said earlier this week that the rising delinquencies "signal increased financial stress, especially among younger and lower-income households." While the economy has been consistently fueled by the resilience of consumers, binging on debt may be catching up with them.

 
 
CONSUMER
Target Might Spin Up Its Own Version of Amazon Prime

Just as Amazon Prime finds its groove again, a new competitor might be about to crash its party. 

Bloomberg reported Wednesday that Target is considering launching an Amazon Prime-esque subscription service, a step above Target's current free loyalty program. This comes just as demand for Amazon Prime is showing signs of rebounding after slowing to a crawl in 2022.

If We Can Hit That Bullseye…

Target's sales had a slightly rough 2023. An inflation-riddled economy meant shoppers spent less on big-ticket discretionary items, and a backlash against a line of Pride-related products affected "traffic and top-line trends," CFO Michael Fiddelke told analysts on an earnings call. Sources told Bloomberg that Target's potential launch of a subscription service, nicknamed Project Trident, is designed to boost sales amid competition with both Amazon and Walmart, which has its own subscription service that sounds like a streaming service: Walmart+.

Amazon Prime is both a retail subscription and a video-streaming service, and in a piece of synchronized price-layering with many other streamers, Amazon announced at the end of last year that it would introduce an ad-supported version of Prime Video and customers would have to pay an extra $2.99 a month for an ad-free version. While some users may find ads on Amazon to be the last straw before navigating through endless "Are you sure you want to cancel your subscription?" prompts, data provided to Business Insider by CIRP suggests Prime is in a stronger position now than it was last year:

  • In 2022, Prime saw its first-ever drop in US subscriber numbers to 168 million. But by the end of 2023, Prime membership sprang back to 176 million.
  • Perhaps more importantly, 2023 saw the highest-ever penetration of Prime, i.e., the percentage of Amazon shoppers who also shell out for Prime membership. According to CIRP's data, 74% of people who shop on Amazon are now also Prime members, up from 66% two years ago.

Ill Health: While Prime is showing signs of a consumer renaissance, Amazon is still on a major cost-cutting mission. This week, the e-commerce giant's cuts extended to its health care division. While Amazon has had ambitious plans in the healthcare space, it has struggled to get a proper foothold. You know what they say: an Apple a day keeps Andy Jassy's relentless job-scythe away.

 
 
PERSONAL FINANCE
Young Americans' Wealth-Building Has Outpaced Everyone Else Since Covid

Good news and bad news for those of you born after the Carter administration. You got richer than any other age cohort in the past four years, but the salad days probably won't last. 

A Large Gap

"Young Americans," in this case meaning adults under 40, saw their aggregate wealth increase 80% since 2019, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Collective wealth for people between 40 and 54 went up 10%. And for those older than 55, it jumped 30%.

The big bump for young Americans — who are the poorest of the three groups in terms of assets — came after they received the bulk of COVID-era stimulus like unemployment benefits as well pauses on debt and expenses, including student loans and rent. Many in this demographic were then able to take those cost savings and put them into new financial assets. 

Don't get too excited, though:

  • Despite comprising nearly 40% of the population, younger adults held less than 6% of all wealth in the US in 2019. Adults 55 and over made up a similar share of the population but controlled almost 70% of all wealth. 
  • Growth since then resulted in just a "slight narrowing of these wealth disparities," New York Fed economists wrote.

Ebbs and Flows: Much of the wealth that young adults have built up is tied to stocks and other equities — generally risky investments with values that can change in a snap. It's not like owning a home — a safer, long-term endeavor, but one that many millennials and zoomers have given up on as they face a tight housing market with low inventory, expensive costs, and high mortgage rates. But don't worry, Mom and Dad haven't converted your old room into a home gym just yet. 

 
 
Extra Upside
  • New iPhone? Apple reportedly working on clamshell phones, a departure from the tried-and-true brick design.
  • Booze boom: Spirits and liquor continue to outsell wine and beer.
  • Whether you're a stock trader, Options trader, swing trader, or day trader, this A.I. "Brain" is predicting market movements days in advance. You won't believe the latest forecast we just saw for ($NVDA). Watch FREE now.*
* Partner
 
 
Just for Fun
 
 
 

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